World No.1s Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka arrive in New York City as the reigning champions, but arguably their biggest respective rivals – Carlos Alcaraz and Iga Swiatek – walked away from Cincinnati with trophies in tow.
All four have saluted at Flushing Meadows before and hold down a top-two seeding this time round, which further boosts their claims to favouritism.
No man outside the Sinner-Alcaraz duopoly has picked up a major since Novak Djokovic at Arthur Ashe Stadium two years ago, but a handful of others have impressed enough to suggest they are in the fray this fortnight.
Sabalenka and Swiatek have bookended a pair of American champions at the past four women’s Slams, but their dominance has been seriously shaken, which has only shown the rest of their rivals what is possible on any given day.
We spoke to our ausopen.com experts to predict who they see standing at the pointy end of the season’s final major.
Our experts
Wally Masur: Former world No.15 and former Australian Davis Cup captain
Jamiee Fourlis: Australian Open 2022 mixed doubles finalist
John Fitzgerald: Former world No.25 and world No.1 in doubles; former Australian Davis Cup captain
Nicole Pratt: Former world No.35 and Australian women’s coach lead
Simon Rea: Former coach of Sam Stosur and Nick Kyrgios
Jannik Sinner couldn't complete the Cincinnati Masters final against Carlos Alcaraz due to illness, but provided he's fit, what are the chances we are going to see them square off in a third straight Grand Slam final in New York?
MASUR: “Pretty good. We're assuming that Jannik bounces back from whatever ails him. They've separated themselves from the field and Alcaraz, he's got the leading record as we speak, but there's nothing in it. It's all about on the day, who can produce but they're awfully consistent, that's for sure. We talk about form and consistency, and some players are just better than others. The idea that you're going to be brilliant for seven matches over seven weeks, it's not going to happen. You have to find a way to win when you're playing poorly. Sinner and Alcaraz have certainly found that formula.”
FOURLIS: “Having them facing each other in four finals already [this year], I think the possibility is incredibly high. I think Jannik has a week now to recover, so does Alcaraz after he lost his mixed doubles [first round], so it just allows both a whole week to recover. They're the two best players going into the men's draw so it is a high possibility.”
FITZGERALD: “I wouldn't bet against it. To have at least one of them in the final, I'd be pretty confident, but to have both of them in the final again it's certainly not a silly thought. The hard court has already shown that it's probably Sinner’s best all-round surface. One of those two makes sense to me. I'm a huge fan of both of these guys and they're going to lead the sport for the next 10 years.”
PRATT: “There’s a very, very high probability they will face off in the final. The other guys are struggling to keep up.”
REA: “Is there anything bar health that looks to get in the way of them meeting again at the very back end of the tournament? I think the answer based on recent experience would have to be no. They seem a cut above the field. That would be a logical men's singles final, and I think we'd all be waiting in huge anticipation of that if it was to eventuate.”
Several other men pressed their cases to be considered in the mix of US Open contenders during the North American hard-court swing. Who has the best shot of going deep or even taking home the title if not Sinner or Alcaraz?
MASUR: “I think Ben Shelton, he's a pretty amazing player. At his very best he’s capable of doing anything. Winning that Masters 1000 in Canada, that’s another step towards that consistency. He’s certainly got that potential. Zverev has probably not had the year by his standards he would have wanted, but he's been pretty solid the last couple of weeks in Cincy and Toronto. It’s taken Khachanov 7-6 in the third in Toronto, he lost to Alcaraz in the semis [in Cincinnati]. He’s building quite nicely towards the US Open. Novak – I know he’s had limited preparation, but what he’s capable of I would never bet against him. You just think seven best-of-five-set matches though, at some point someone will take something out of him and even if he wins that match, there’s another and it’s just hard from the quarters on to beat the calibre of player that he’s had to beat as he’s nudging 40. Khachanov played well in Toronto, and you’ve got Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe with the home crowd behind them.”
FOURLIS: “I think Shelton and Tiafoe have a really high possibility of going deep. It's their home Slam. I think they both thrive in New York, and I think the courts and the balls definitely suit both game styles, which they've showed in the past. Shelton went deep a couple of years ago and Tiafoe has commented multiple times that it's probably his favourite Slam and he loves when the crowd's behind him, so they would be my two underdogs for the two weeks.”
FITZGERALD: “The first guy that comes to mind is Shelton right now. He's not as solid as these top guys guys, he's a bit flashier. He's probably a bit more old-school, meaning way back, in that he has a beautiful big serve, which complicates it for an opposing player by being left-handed. He's a hell of a player, this kid, but he does make more errors than players like Sinner and Alcaraz. Zverev has been such a good player that he deserves to win one, but he's probably got to beat both of the top guys at the back end of the tournament to do it and so far, that's been too hard for him to do.”
PRATT: “I think Ben Shelton is hot right now.”
REA: “I like what Shelton has done at times over the hard-court swing in North America. I think he's got the ability to play at a really high level and to elevate his game. I like his physicality, I like the weapons he's got in his game, I like that sense of x-factor. There's a certain amount of electricity he brings to the court and when he's running hot. I feel like he does have the ability to be a threat to either one of those two on any given day but perhaps doesn't have the consistency of performance. I'm intrigued with what Zverev's done. He's been there again thereabouts in Toronto and Cincinnati so it's impossible to deny his prospects of going deep. When you bring the type of serve and physicality that he brings to the court over five sets, it's not hard to see him being right at the business end of the tournament either.”
Aryna Sabalenka is the reigning women’s champion but has fallen in two dramatic Slam finals since. Given her return last week with a quarterfinal run in Cincinnati after her post-Wimbledon break, how do you think she’ll go?
MASUR: “If she's kind of firing she's the most dangerous. That final at Roland Garros was interesting because it was a tricky day – Gauff is a tricky opponent, but Sabalenka kind of beat herself in a way. If Aryna can get her head together after her break – she obviously got a few matches up in Cincinnati – she's probably the favourite or thereabouts. Assuming they all play their best tennis, I've got Sabalenka by a whisker.”
FOURLIS: “Definitely deep, she's definitely the player to watch and the most consistent player on the hard courts. It's so tough to beat Sabalenka on a hard court. I think through her Roland Garros loss and through Wimby she's definitely learned some lessons along the way. I think she'll be able to show whether she's learned enough and put that to work to be able to go deep here again at the US Open. She's always dangerous and she'll always come up and be prepared to fight, so you can never underestimate her ability.”
FITZGERALD: “On the last couple of years of history, I'd quickly say Sabalenka and if you'd asked me this a year ago, I would've said that she's the best hardcourt player in the world. I think that court just suits her. The ball comes onto the racket and it's in her hitting zone and she's all power. She's already a great player, but to make her an all-time player, I think she's gotta keep developing a few more nuances, winning points in different ways.”
PRATT: “I think Sabalenka will likely make the semifinals, but it depends a little on the draw and who she draws as a potential quarter. There are some dangerous players ranked No.5-No.12 including Rybakina, Anisimova and Paolini.”
REA: “I think Sabalenka's going to be right around the mark. I think she'll get conditions to suit her here – the courts and balls are lively enough. She will have reenergised, refocused and reprioritised what she needs to do in her game through the preparation phase and into Cincinnati, so I'd expect Sabalenka to be in the last four, if not beyond and right in the mix to hold up the trophy at the end of the fortnight.”
Iga Swiatek looks to have broken the shackles following her Wimbledon triumph after claiming the silverware in Cincinnati. If not the Pole or Sabalenka, who is best placed to land the title in New York?
MASUR: “You look at Iga, well, she seems to be back. I always think the US Open is a bit tougher for her because it's a little bit faster and some of the girls can get that ball hard and fast into her forehand. The interesting one is Coco Gauff. She seems to have these serving woes that have crept back in when it was something that looked like she was kind of moving forward on. Isn't she a tough cookie though. The hardest thing in tennis is when you're not playing your best sometimes you get really despondent, but she puts it all behind her. I put Swiatek and Rybakina in a little group a millimetre behind Sabalenka. Madison Keys is probably struggling a bit. I always think she's a great hard-court player though. Maybe that Montreal final is a real fillip for Naomi Osaka and she starts to show us the kind of form that was winning Slams. The really interesting one is Victoria Mboko. I watched her at the French and thought, ‘Oh my god, this girl is good’.
FOURLIS: “Looking at the list of players – Keys, Anisimova, Pegula – there's a lot of Americans that have had a good last couple of months, but I think from Iga's perspective, momentum is so big in tennis and she's definitely shown that the last couple of weeks after Wimby and at Cincinnati and she has a lot of belief now that everything's going right. I think she'll continue to try to ride that momentum, that wave through the whole US swing.”
FITZGERALD: “I always thought that Swiatek's game was perfectly suited to clay – a bit like Rafa. Now she's proved herself elsewhere. She's broken through at Wimbledon and she'll win on hard court more and more. She's the player with confidence at the moment and confidence counts for a lot, it really does. I don't know whether it's beyond Osaka to have another deep run now that she’s back after she had a baby.”
PRATT: “I think a couple of the Americans thrive in the New York conditions. The silverware could then go to an American – Coco Gauff, Madison Keys or Amanda Anisimova.”
REA: “I've been so impressed by what Iga's done in Cincinnati and similarly she came up against Clara Tauson in Montreal, who was just running hot. Players like Tauson and Keys, they do have the ability to take the racquet out of your hands on some days. I still think Keys can find a more sustained run of form than perhaps what we've seen from her post AO in January. I think she's going to get conditions to suit. She played well here before. Clearly Iga is in that conversation. Iga is every bit the chance to hold the trophy aloft and one that I am warming to more and more is Rybakina. She is getting closer to putting her best foot forward more often and there's more repeatability coming in her performances of late.”