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Analysis: Svitolina increasing the aggression

  • Ravi Ubha

Elina Svitolina has quietly sailed through Australian Open 2021 without dropping a set.

But analysis, powered by Infosys, shows the Ukrainian — who plays American Jessica Pegula in the fourth round on Monday — is making some noise with increased power. 

Svitolina has always been known as one of the game’s best movers and counterpunchers, but increased aggression is backed up the numbers. 

Take her first serve, for example. Svitolina’s average first-serve speed in 2017 at Melbourne Park registered at 158.6 km/h. But at AO 2021, that has significantly increased to 167 km/h, the highest average speed when looking back over her four previous visits to Melbourne. 

Analysing her average second serve speed over the same period — starting in 2017 — note that it sits at 129.2 km/h, the second highest figure after last year’s 132.6 km/h. 

There is also significantly greater zip on her forehand. In 2017, the fifth seed’s average forehand speed clocked 111.5 km/h.

This fortnight so far? It's averaging 118.4 km/h.

Elina Svitolina at Australian Open 2021
Elina Svitolina is averaging 7km/h more on her forehand at AO 2021 compared with four years ago at the same event.

Svitolina’s average rally position is actually farther behind the baseline compared to the previous three editions of the AO, but with this positioning comes more time to strike the ball, helping her generate that added pace.

This also applies to her returns. Her average return position is roughly two metres behind the baseline, allowing for bigger swings, with control.

But as rallies develops, her average position gets closer to the baseline.

For example, from 1-4 shots on the forehand side, she is 1.5 metres beyond the baseline. From 5-8 shots, she closes to within 0.14 metres of the baseline — potentially drawing shorter balls — before falling back to 0.3 metres when rallies stretch to nine shots or more, when more defending might need to be done. 

Svitolina will be hoping to find all the right numbers against Pegula, who she defeated in straight sets last month in Abu Dhabi.