Rafa is gone. Novak is gone. So is Grigor, Nick and Juan-Martin. This year, Melbourne Park doesn’t care what your name is, or what’s on your resume.
With so many big-name casualties before the semifinals, many want to call the engraver right now and put Roger Federer’s name on the trophy for a sixth time. Not so fast…
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Federer plays Tomas Berdych on Wednesday night at 7.30pm AEDT on Rod Laver Arena in a classic “trap” match. The world is already looking way past this quarterfinal - itching to deliver a 20th Grand Slam title to the Swiss superstar.
Let’s not forget that Berdych has six career victories over Federer, and had two match points on him in Miami last year as well. Federer won 6-3 4-6 7-6(6), but Berdych served for it at 6-4 in the deciding tiebreaker. He barely missed an ace down the centre with his first serve. The Czech missed a first shot forehand after the second serve, and then missed a forehand return on his second match point.
He needed just one more clean swing of the racquet for victory.
It was a gut-wrenching loss for the Czech, as he won more points (91-89) overall, and won the abundant 0-4 shot rally length 64-58. He simply out-hit Federer, averaging 117 km/h (73mph) on his groundstrokes, compared to 107 km/h (67mph) for the Swiss.
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How should Berdych best prepare to upset Federer? Quite simple - watch video of his best patterns of play against Federer from their previous battles. Fifteen minutes of forehand winners, 15 minutes of great returns, 15 minutes of approach and volley, etc. Grab a vegemite sandwich, and settle in for the highlight show.
Seeing is believing.
Another key element of this trap match is that Berdych is playing ridiculously good tennis at the moment. His past two matches have especially been impressive - a 6-3 6-3 6-2 victory over Juan-Martin del Potro and a 6-1 6-4 6-4 win over the dangerous Italian Fabio Fognini.
Berdych is having fun. He is relaxed and chill this year. Beware the man that has nothing to lose, and everything to gain.
With all that said, Berdych is still playing an opponent who has not dropped a set here in Melbourne this year. Federer has served 60 service games, and won 58. He has won an impressive 70 per cent (96/135) at net, which even includes a dominant 79 per cent (26/33) serving and volleying.
Federer went right through Berdych last year in Melbourne, winning 6-2 6-4 6-4 in the third round. They also played in Melbourne in 2009, where Berdych went up two sets to love before going down in five sets.
Berdych’s forehand is the mystery in this match-up. The Czech’s backhand is always rock solid, but the forehand can get loose when the contact point gets low, and the swing path becomes too steep up the back of the ball.
Fortunately, that dynamic hasn’t been a problem for Berdych in Melbourne this trip. He hit 16 forehand winners against Del Potro, and 12 against Fognini. More importantly, there were only eight forehand unforced errors against the Italian.
If the forehand is behaving itself, and Berdych is able to pair a carefree, nothing-to-lose attitude with his scintillating shot making, Federer could quite easily be the next big-name casualty Down Under.
PREDICTION: Federer in five sets