It took Kyle Edmund 60 matches in the 2017 season to hit 315 aces.
It has taken him five matches at the 2018 Australian Open to barrel down 78 aces. That’s 25 per cent of his 2017 total in just five matches.
The serve is on fire.
Edmund, 23, has powered through to his first Grand Slam tournament semifinal, and will face big-serving Croatian Marin Cilic at Rod Laver Arena on Thursday night from 7.30pm. They have played once before, with Cilic winning 6-3 7-6(5) in the second round of Shanghai last year.
Edmund only hit three aces in that match. New year. Improved serve.
Day 11 preview: Collision course
This is an extremely close match-up any way you look at it. Cilic has always had a dominant serve, and has hit 96 aces through five matches in Melbourne. The Croatian has played seven tiebreaks, winning five of them.
When rallies do extend past a serve and a return, the predictable baseline pattern to look for is Edmund looking to hit as many forehands as possible, especially as a run-around standing in the ad court.
A dominant pattern for the Brit is a baseline strategy called the 2-1 pattern. Two shots in one direction, and the third to the opposite corner. Here’s how it will play out.
Shot 1 = Deep
Edmund’s run-around forehand from the ad court will go cross court to Cilic’s backhand. The emphasis here is not on direction. It’s all about depth. Make Cilic have to lean off the ball because the ball is bouncing closer to the baseline than the service line.
If Edmund does get the ball deep, and Cilic is having to hit a neutral to defensive backhand, it’s tough to hit it down the line. It has to go cross court, where Edmund is already standing.
Shot 2 = Wide
When you hit a ball deep, it often comes back short, and you can step in and enjoy improved geometry for the next shot. Edmund will be looking to hit another run-around forehand wide through the ad court to stretch his 197cm (6’6”) opponent off the court to the backhand side. The key is to stop the opponent stepping into the ball. Make them reach. This two shot sequence goes hand in hand.
Shot 3 = Switch
Imagine Cilic is now standing in the alley in the ad court, playing a defensive backhand. Edmund will now change directions with the third shot and hit his forehand inside-in to the vacant deuce court. The first two shots create a huge hole in the deuce court to finish points. Sometimes it’s a 3-1 pattern, with an extra shot needed to arm wrestle the required advantage.
Will Cilic also be running the 2-1 pattern as well? Not as much as Edmund will, simply because Cilic loves to hit his backhand. Cilic has 39 backhand winners (Edmund 36) for the tournament so far, and runs around it far less than most players on tour.
Cilic has committed 157 backhand errors (93 forced / 64 unforced) and 218 forehand errors (91 forced / 127 unforced) through five matches in Melbourne. Cilic will initially rely on his backhand to stand tall against Edmund’s run-around forehand before he calls in the cavalry from the forehand wing.
PREDICTION: Edmund in five sets