Elena Rybakina has come agonisingly close to glory at the Australian Open.
Back at AO 2023, she went a set up in the final against Aryna Sabalenka. The reigning Wimbledon champion, Rybakina dropped just one set on her way to the final at Melbourne Park two years ago.
MORE: All the results from AO 2025
She also became the first female player to beat three former Grand Slam champions – Iga Swiatek, Jelena Ostapenko and Victoria Azarenka – in a single edition of the AO since Jennifer Capriati in 2001, when the latter beat Martina Hingis, Lindsay Davenport and Monica Seles.
Yet after going ahead, Rybakina could not hold on. Sabalenka clawed back to win 4-6 6-3 6-4.
A second-round exit from AO 2024 followed year later, with Rybakina going down to Anna Blinkova in three sets, in a match that featured a record-setting tie-break.
So, the 25-year-old arrived at AO 2025 with a determination to set matters right.
Setting the tone
Rybakina blazed through her opening match against Australian wildcard Emerson Jones in just 53 minutes, winning 6-1 6-1. The sixth seed needed just 90 minutes to oust another wildcard, Iva Jovic, 6-0 6-3.
That victory over Jovic marked Rybakina’s 50th Grand Slam match win. Since the start of the 2020 season, only four players have won more – Iga Swiatek, Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Ons Jabeur.
| Player | Major matches won since the start of 2020 |
| Iga Swiatek | 81 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 72 |
| Coco Gauff | 58 |
| Ons Jabeur | 55 |
| Elena Rybakina | 51 |
Saturday’s meeting with Dayana Yastremska, however, proved slightly more complicated. Rybakina still won in straight sets, and needed just 90 minutes to do so, but she dropped seven games – two more than across her first two wins combined.
She was certainly not helped by a back injury, for which she had to receive treatment during the first set at John Cain Arena.
However, she battled through her first ever meeting with the Ukrainian, and despite Yastremska saving five break points at 5-4 down in the second set, Rybakina served out the win in the next game.
Though she could not clinch that decisive break to settle the match, Rybakina did get the better of Yastremska’s serve three times throughout the contest, which is particularly impressive given the 32nd seed had not dropped a single service game through the first two rounds.
Rybakina has now won 14 AO singles matches. She has only won more matches at Wimbledon (19).
The world No.7 is now 12-1 in AO matches in which she has won the first set – the only time she failed to win from a set up was in the 2023 final.
Rybakina has now made the fourth round in five of the last six Grand Slams in which she has featured in the third round.
The only exception came at the US Open in 2023, when she lost to Sorana Cristea.
Serving up the goods
Rybakina is a particularly strong server, and she is showing it at AO 2025.
Across the WTA Tour in 2024, only Olympic champion – and AO 2024 runner-up – Qinwen Zheng (445) could better Rybakina’s tally of 358 aces.
The Kazakh had already hit 100 aces by mid-February last year and finished 51 clear of world No.1 Sabalenka (307) in the metric.
But when we dive a little deeper, Rybakina’s ace total becomes even more impressive. She played 53 Tour-level matches last year, 15 fewer than Zheng and 17 fewer than Sabalenka.
That means Rybakina averaged 6.7 aces per match, slightly more than Zheng’s 6.5 and well above Sabalenka’s average of 4.4.
Rybakina has struck 17 aces so far at AO 2025, ranking sixth. She has won 76% (68/90) of her first service points, and has only been broken twice so far.
While Sabalenka, Swiatek and Coco Gauff look imperious, Rybakina is appearing to be just as strong.
The main worry, though, will be her fitness. She said during her on-court interview on Saturday that her physio would have to “do some magic”.
But if that is the case, then Rybakina – who faces Madison Keys next – certainly needs to be considered as one of the strongest contenders heading into week two.