To paraphrase former top-10 star Andrea Petkovic, who has been commentating in Melbourne for Australian Open 2025: big hitters don’t like playing big hitters.
This was true for Aryna Sabalenka, the world No.1 and two-time defending AO champion who succumbed to Madison Keys in three sets.
MORE: Keys v Sabalenka match statistics
Sabalenka has built a career on overpowering opponents with her phenomenal serve and groundstroke ferocity, and was just one match away from completing an historic Australian Open three-peat.
It’s rare to see her out-hit and forced onto the back foot, but that’s exactly what happened as Keys completed a remarkable 6-3 2-6 7-5 triumph.
Here’s how Keys did it.
Composure
The last time Keys featured in a Grand Slam final was more than seven years ago at the 2017 US Open, and it ended in a demoralising 6-3 6-0 loss to Sloane Stephens.
“I was so consumed with being nervous and the moment and the opportunity and all of that,” Keys admitted, “that I never really gave myself a chance to actually play.”
She entered Rod Laver Arena on Saturday night in what appeared a much calmer state. She played with controlled aggression, remained emotionally level and kept her numbers tidy, finishing the first set with more winners than unforced errors.
It was a contrast to Sabalenka, who looked edgy and increasingly frustrated as the opening set slipped away.
Although the world No.1 rebounded to force a third, Keys played brilliantly as the final set got tighter and the stakes rose. There was to be no repeat of her heartbreaking loss to Sabalenka in the 2023 US Open semifinals, where she was pipped in a match tiebreak after serving for the match in the second set.
Despite such huge shot-making – which comes with an inherent level of risk – Keys committed only seven unforced errors for the entire third set.
On serve
The American’s serving performance was elite, especially in the opening set, during which she landed 19 of 22 first serves (86 per cent).
She averaged a faster first-serve speed than Sabalenka, who finished the first set with four double faults – including two in a nervy opening game.
She committed just one more for the rest of the match, yet Keys did not double fault once, all while slotting six aces, attaining a peak serve speed of almost 190km/h, averaging 10km/h faster on her first serve than Sabalenka and winning more first-serve points.
In the decisive third set, Keys’ first-serving winning percentage soared to 85 and she did not allow Sabalenka a single break point.
Pace of shot
There was gasps from the 15,000 fans seated inside Rod Laver Arena as Keys fired groundstrokes which forced Sabalenka onto her heels.
They produce their forehands differently; while Sabalenka executes hers with more shape, margin and heaviness, Keys clubs a fast, flat shot with lower net clearance and which shoots through the court.
You could hear Sabalenka’s racquet frequently clipping the court as she attempted to get her body low to play shots which seemed to barely bounce above her ankles.
“I was on the back foot all the time,” Sabalenka said of the first set. “I think she played, like, super aggressive. It seemed like everything was going her way. I was just trying to put the ball back. Couldn't really play my aggressive tennis.”
Keys’ forehand averaged 16km/h faster than Sabalenka’s, and increased in speed as the match progressed, jumping from an average 127km/h in set one to 133km/h in the third set.
In the third set, she was also playing her forehand with more spin than Sabalenka, whose average forehand speed dropped 10km/h compared with what she was producing against Paula Badosa in the semifinals.
Timing is everything
There’s a saying in tennis that it’s not how many points you win, but which points you win.
And that was true of Keys, who managed to produce her best tennis at crucial junctures.
During the fifth game of the third set, the scoreboards inside Rod Laver Arena showed Keys and Sabalenka had won 74 points each. Two games later, scores were locked at one set all, 3-3, 30-30.
At that point, Keys scorched two winners to hold for 4-3.
She repeated the feat when scores were tied at 5-5, 30-30 – the first Australian Open women’s singles final to go this deep into a third set since 1981. Two more winners from Keys helped her hold for 6-5 and put her on the brink of victory.
Here we saw the advantage that comes with serving first in a set – Sabalenka was always playing catch up, and in the 12th game, she couldn’t stay with Keys.
A final forehand winner from the American sealed an emotional victory.