Two first-time women’s Grand Slam semifinalists will be decided at Melbourne Park on Wednesday when three unseeded contenders – Dayana Yastremska, Linda Noskova and Anna Kalinskaya – and 12th seed Zheng Qinwen do battle.
[12] ZHENG QINWEN v ANNA KALINSKAYA
1. How they got here
Following top seed Iga Swiatek’s and 11th seed Jelena Ostapenko’s third-round exits, 12th seed Zheng suddenly finds herself the highest-remaining seed in the top half of the draw.
Such an opportunity brings added pressure and she needed to dig deep to survive against compatriot and world No.94 Wang Yafan in a third-set tiebreak in her third round match.
It has been a wildly fluctuating route for the 21-year-old. American world No.76 Ashlyn Krueger was mighty difficult to shake at the first hurdle but Zheng was more convincing against Katie Boulter and fourth-round debutante Oceane Dodin.
While four years older, the 75th-ranked Kalinskaya has less experience this deep at a Slam, having never passed the second round in 13 major appearances.
Her path at AO 2024 was somewhat similar to Zheng’s, first struggling past US qualifier Katie Volynets, before a smoother procession past Dutchwoman Arantxa Rus.
A three-set triumph over US Open 2017 champion Sloane Stephens was her statement victory before a straight-sets defeat of 26th seed Jasmine Paolini.
Zheng has been on court seven hours and 35 minutes, just three minutes more than her opponent.
2. What it means
Through to her second successive major quarterfinal after last year’s US Open, Zheng is determined not to let nerves get the better of her this time round.
She could become the fourth Chinese woman after Zheng Jie, Li Na and Peng Shuai to reach a Grand Slam semifinal and the youngest to do so.
MORE: AO 2024 women’s singles draw
AO 2024 has already been a breakout tournament for Kalinskaya. She has won four straight matches for the first time and while she has reached the last four twice in her career – in Washington in 2019 and Guadalajara in 2022 – there has never been this much at stake.
3. What to expect
Zheng’s 34 aces are more than any other in the women’s field so far. She has won an impressive 79 per cent of first-serve points across four matches and held serve 78 per cent of the time.
Kalinskaya has found it tougher, winning 67 per cent of first-serve points but leads the pack for break points saved – 25 of 30 – and second only to Aryna Sabalenka of active players for service games won (89 per cent).
Zheng boasts greater power off the ground and on serve and should control the bulk of rallies.
Her 51 per cent conversion rate on 35 break points is considerably better than her opponent, who has landed just 33 per cent of 52 opportunities.
4. Head-to-head
The lower-ranked Kalinskaya claimed the only previous encounter between the pair in three sets in the round of 32 en route to the semifinals in Guadalajara in 2022.
5. Who wins, and why
While Zheng came up short last time around, the Chinese star has blossomed this season since to climb into the top 15. With the experience of that first Slam quarterfinal out of the way expect Zheng to take the next step.
Zheng in two.
[Q] DAYANA YASTREMSKA v LINDA NOSKOVA
1. How they got here
Former world No.21 Yastremska had only once reached a Grand Slam fourth round in 15 main draw appearances before her AO 2024 breakout.
After seven straight victories – three of those in qualifying – the 23-year-old has gathered momentum.
All the Ukrainian’s qualifying matches went the distance before she allowed Wimbledon champion and seventh seed Marketa Vondrousova just three games in the first round. She pulled well clear in a deciding set against 27th seed Emma Navarro in the third round before victory over two-time champion and 18th seed Victoria Azarenka.
Czech 19-year-old Noskova sounded a warning of her potential following a run to the Adelaide final last year and the Brisbane semifinals earlier this month, but few foresaw her upset of world No.1 Iga Swiatek in the third round. Ukrainian 19th seed Elina Svitolina succumbed to a back injury just three games into their fourth-round clash.
The 93rd-ranked Yastremska has spent six hours and 15 minutes navigating a route through the main draw following a further six hours and six minutes to emerge from qualifying. Noskova has needed six hours and 13 minutes on court.
2. What it means
In a promising omen for Yastremska, she is the first qualifier since eventual champion Emma Raducanu at US Open 2021 to reach a major quarterfinal.
Victory would make her the first qualifier since Christine Matison at AO 1978 to reach the semifinals and the lowest-ranked player to progress as far in the past 40 years.
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The youngest woman to reach the Australian Open quarterfinals since Agnieszka Radwanska, Noskova could become the youngest semifinalist since her compatriot Nicole Vaidisova in 2007.
3. What to expect
Noskova’s exquisite timing and powerful groundstrokes stunned Swiatek and against the sweet-hitting Ukrainian, first-strike shot-making will be the key to taking control.
The Czech has cracked 104 winners, 18 fewer than her opponent through four rounds, but her 50 off the forehand tallies at four more.
Yastremska has been more impressive off the backhand, collecting 34 winners, six more than the teenager, while she has been broken just eight times in 40 service games to Noskova’s five times in 38 games.
4. Head-to-head
In a first showdown between two women outside the top 50 in an Australian Open quarterfinal since 1990, Linda Noskova and Dayana Yastremska will meet for the first time.
5. Who wins, and why
Despite lacking the experience on the big stage, the level-headed Noskova has looked unflappable throughout her AO debut and with more in the tank should expect her run to continue.
Noskova in three sets.