It’s the first round. The nerves will be flying. It’s ‘go time’ Down Under to kick off Australian Open 2018.
Players must win seven matches to win the Australian Open, but it’s important to understand half the tournament is done and dusted in the first round. There will be 64 matches each for the men and women in the opening round, and the following six stand out as great battles on the first Tuesday.
1. No.14 Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs No.63 Donald Young (USA)
It’s been just over six months since we have seen Djokovic in a competitive match. The whole world will be tuning in to see at exactly what level he will return. Young is 0-2 against Djokovic, and will have to navigate two key strategies to find a pathway to victory. Young is a lefty, which means he loves to hit his forehand through the ad court to right-hander’s backhands. The only problem is that Djokovic has one of the world’s best backhands. That same dynamic exists with Young’s serve patterns. Young will need to adjust his game and play more through the deuce court to Djokovic’s forehand to be able to upset the six-time champ.
PREDICTION: Djokovic in four sets.
2. No.127 Alex de Minaur (AUS) vs. No.20 Tomas Berdych (CZE)
De Minaur’s run to the final of the Brisbane International has got the whole country buzzing. He plays like the reincarnation of Lleyton Hewitt, who just happens to be sitting in his coaches box. They play not before 6.45pm at Hisense Arena, and the vocal local crowd will be losing their minds supporting the 18-year old Aussie. Can he win? Yes. How? By putting a lot of balls in play, and breaking down Berdych’s forehand.
PREDICTION: de Minaur in four sets
3. No.21 Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) v No.40 Fernando Verdasco (ESP)
Verdasco leads this head-to-head 3-1, winning their only hardcourt match 6-4 3-6 7-5 in the second round of Dubai last season. Bautista Agut is coming off winning the ASB Classic in New Zealand last week, and is bringing a lot of confidence to Melbourne. Verdasco spectacularly took out Rafael Nadal in the opening round here in Melbourne in 2016, clubbing 90 winners including 41 forehands and 16 backhands. Verdasco needs to go for broke again to have a chance against his more consistent opponent.
PREDICTION: Bautista Agut in four sets.
4. No.48 Maria Sharapova (RUS) vs No.47 Tatjana Maria (GER)
These players have never met, providing another fascinating layer to the return of Sharapova - the 2008 Australian Open champion. The Russian is 52-12 at Melbourne Park, while the German is just 2-5. The Achilles heel of Sharapova’s game is double faults. In 2017, she served 124 aces and 121 doubles faults. Not a good ratio. Maria served 101 aces and 69 double faults. Sharapova’s second serve must behave if she is to advance to the second round again this year.
PREDICTION: Sharapova in two sets
5. No.45 Qiang Wang (CHN) vs No.20 Madison Keys (EST)
This is a very competitive first round match for Keys, who reached the semifinals here in 2015. Wang is a good mover, puts a lot of balls in play, and can finish points with aggressive court position. Keys will be relying on her powerful serve and forehand to control the flow of points, and not get into long rallies where the odds of victory become much more even. Keys should get through this, but will have to blend power with consistency to do so.
PREDICTION: Keys in two sets.
6. No.28 Petra Kvitova (CZE) vs No.98 Andrea Petkovic (GER)
Don’t let the current rankings fool you - these two have history. Kvitova narrowly leads the head-to-head 5-4, with the pair splitting their last four hard court matches 2-2. They have not played since 2016 in Montreal, and this one looks like it will go the distance. Surprisingly, Kvitova has not reached the second week in Melbourne in the past five years.
PREDICTION: Kvitova in three sets.